Climate Change:
Guest Papers

This website is pleased to make this space available to guest authors,
who are making valuable contributions to the Climate Change debate.

(The opinions expressed in these papers and articles are those of their original authors and do not necessarily reflect or represent the opinions of this site.  Similarly, the inclusion of these items does not necessarily represent endorsement by the contributors of other views expressed elsewhere on this website.)  -   John L. Daly

Cyclonic Storms Over Western Europe by Max Beran (Britain)  (15 Dec 03).  Max Beran analyses claims by the Hadley Centre that a significant trend in UK storminess over the past half-century or so had occurred.  He finds that a faulty treatment of the North Atlantic Oscillation resulted in the claimed effect being a statistical artefact, not actually real.

Variations in CO2 Growth Rate Associated with Solar Activity  by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (Germany) (21 Sept 03).  Solar activity and solar motion variations are found to explain much of the variability of CO2 growth over the last several decades.  The average annual increase over the last 10 years was 1.66 ppmv/yr, which is less than half that assumed by climate models.

Heat Wave in Europe: The Mystery Unveiled  by Eduardo Ferreyra  (Argentina) (21 Sept 03). The recent heat in Europe made headlines in the media  and was used as evidence that "global warming" is a fact.  Guess what: human activities had nothing to do with it. See an excellent explanation of how meteorology, not global warming, was responsible for the heat wave.   

  Decadal-Scale Variations in El-Niño Intensity by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (Germany) (20 May 2003). Where does El Niño and La Niña go from here?  Using his solar motions analysis (which successfully predicted the last La Niña and the recent El Niño), Dr Landscheidt looks 80 years into the future and finds La Niña more dominant.

  Good Scientific Practice and the Lomborg Affair in Denmark by Prof. (em) Dr Arthur Rorsch (Netherlands) (30 Apr 03).   Serious questions raised about the procedures used against Prof Bjorn Lomborg ("The Skeptical Environmentalist").  Prof Rorsch invites reader comments.

 Regional Temperature Change (14 Apr 03) - Dr Vincent R. Gray (New Zealand) - Updated comprehensive survey of surface temperature network, finding it to be unreliable, and flawed in numerous specified ways.  

Long-Range Forecast of U.S. Drought Based on Solar Activity by    Dr Theodor Landscheidt (Germany) (15 Mar 2003).  Following from his stunning success in predicting the timing of the current El Niño over 4 years ago, Dr Theodor Landscheidt has now applied his solar analysis technique to the problem of periodic drought conditions in the U.S.  He has developed a long-range forecast covering the period up to 2030.  He predicts that the next extended wet period should begin around 2007 and last about 7 to 8 years.  A draught peak is to be expected from 2025 on and should last about five years.     Also available in Spanish.

The Polar Bears of Hudson Bay  by Miceal O'Ronain (USA) (29 Dec 2002) Photos of cuddly bear cubs - statistical sleights of hand - all to persuade Canadians that their polar bears were threatened by `global warming'.  This is all exposed in this paper and the true situation with both the bears and the chilly climate they live in is revealed.

  AN ILL WIND... Wind Farms as a Blight on the Landscape by Mark Duchamp (Spain). Discusses the numerous  adverse effects of wind farms on the natural environment with no climatic benefit whatsoever (10 Nov 02). 

`The First Global Warming Refugees' by Dr Wilson Flood (U.K.) 20 Oct 02.  Was an Alaskan village the victim of global warming, or merely `longshore drift', a common coastal phenomenon?  Dr Flood reveals how a natural process has been another media beat-up over over `global warming'. 

Alaska at the Limits by Miceal O'Ronain (USA). How the New York Times completely mangled their reportage of recent Alaska temperatures, and could not even get their `correction' right. 

A New Metric to Detect CO2 Greenhouse Effect Applied To Some New Mexico Weather Data   (24 July 2002)  by Slade Barker (USA). An enhanced CO2 greenhouse effect should result in greater heat retention in the atmosphere at night.  Dr Barker, a retired geophysicist, uses historical data to show this does not happen in dry New Mexico.

Coloring the Models:  Climate Change through Color Change  by Miceal O`Ronain  (USA).  
    See Preview regarding this latest National Assessment scandal.

Climate Connections:  The failure to include many factors in climatology  (1 July 02) by  Dr. Tim Ball (Canada).   An essay to show that many variables which affect climate are ignored by climate modellers and the IPCC.  Special emphasis on Canada.

  El Niño Forecast Revisited  (19 March 02) by  Dr Theodor Landscheidt (Canada).   
Dr Landscheidt reviews his prediction made over 3 years ago on this website of the El Niño now developing, and describes his method in layman's terms for the benefit of non-expert readers.

A `Trace' of Snow in Butte, Montana  (4 Jan 2002) by Tony Bergantino
When does a dump of snow become merely a `trace' of snow?  As this article by Tony Bergantino of the Office of the Wyoming State Climatologist shows, the `surface record' of anything is not always what it seems.  The linked article below is both self-explanatory and highly disturbing for the credibility of the Historical Climate Network.

Weather Singularities over Alaska   (21 Dec 2001) by Jan Curtis (USA), state climatologist for Wyoming, Reports on an unusual phenomenon which defies normal weather statistics.

Hug & Barrett versus IPCC  (17 Dec 2001)  by Dr Heinz Hug (Germany) and Dr Jack Barrett (UK). The reaction of atmospheric gases to radiation lies at the very core of Greenhouse theory.  Hug & Barrett demonstrate that the IPCC has over-estimated the radiative effect of greenhouse gases by a factor of more than 3, due largely to the IPCC's failure to account for the spectral behaviour of water vapour.  `Open Review' here.

  The Greenhouse Delusion: Critique of "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis"   (9 Dec 2001)
Dr Vincent Gray (NZ).  Major report and critique on the IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001

  `Making' the News:  The Sunday Times and British Climate by Miceal O'Ronain & John L. Daly  
How the London Sunday Times has been distorting climatic data without so much as a murmur from the originators of that data.
(20 Nov 2001)

Disaster, Failure or Success? – Towards a better interaction between scientists,  policy-makers and society groups   by Dr. Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen (UK). Discussion of the deep politicisation of the IPCC process  (5 Nov 2001)

Relationship Between the 10.7 cm & Niño 3.4 Indices and Wyoming Droughts, 1958-1999 
Jan Curtis
(Wyoming State Climatologist)  - 
October 2001. How the sun is driving the climate in Wyoming. 

The Carbon Dioxide Thermometer: Updated
by Dr Jarl Ahlbeck (27 Aug 2001).  Dr Ahbeck updates his CO2 Thermometer in light of the small increase in CO2 for 2000.

  The UN IPCC's Artful Bias by  David Wojick, Ph.D.    Glaring Omissions, False Confidence and Misleading Statistics in the Summary for Policymakers of Working Group 1 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report

  Kyoto Can’t Help, but it Could Hurt!!    by  Dr. James J. O’Brien  ( Professor of Meteorology and Oceanography at Florida State University, also the State of Florida Climatologist.)  His thoughts on the state of climate science in the U.S.  (9 July 2001)

The U.S. National Academy of Sciences Issues a Distorted Report - Comments on the National Academy Report on Climate Change  by  Prof S. Fred Singer (9 June 2001)  

Trends in Pacific Decadal Oscillation Subjected To Solar Forcing by Dr Theodor Landscheidt   
(25 April 2001).
First ENSO, then the NAO (item below), now Dr Landscheidt completes the trilogy demonstrating that the 50-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation is also a product of solar forcing, not random chance.

   Global Warming: How It All Began (9 May 99) by Richard Courtney (Britain). How global warming had its origins as an act of political expediency in Britain, only to become a global scare

Solar Eruptions Linked to North Atlantic Oscillation by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (Canada) (9 April 2001). After predicting that the next El Niño will peak late next year, Dr Landscheidt now shows that a similar correlation exists between solar motion/activity cycles and the N.A.O.

Carbon Dioxide Sink 1970-2000 and Model Projections to 2100: a Statistical Mass Transfer Analysis by Dr Jarl Ahlbeck (12 Mar 2001).  In this report it is shown that the UN- IPCC CO2 model gives exaggerated future CO2 concentrations for given emissions probably due to underestimating the sensitivity of the carbon sink flow rate to enhanced atmospheric CO2.

Carbon Model Calculations by Peter Dietze (31 Mar 2001). Carbon models lie at the heart of the IPCC predictions about future CO2 levels and future climate. But their numbers do not add up as demonstrated in this paper by Peter Dietze.   Open Review on Peter Dietze's paper.

Climate Change Skepticism Is A Noble Calling by  David Wojick (2 March, 2001)   In this short but incisive article, David Wojick explains the key role climate change sceptics have in the public policy process. For example, he states as a general `principle of assessment' - " When a body of science comes to have public policy implications it must undergo a higher level of scrutiny."

Beware of Global Cooling by  Fred L. Oliver  (4 Feb 2001) A detailed discussion on both the science and politics of `global warming'. This paper is the culmination of four years of study into the issue by the author.

  Canadian Climate Change Quiz by Jeff Norman (25 Nov 2000).  If you are Canadian, test your knowledge about your own climate 

"Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" - The `Summary for Policymakers: An Appraisal  by Dr Vincent Gray (12 Nov 2000) Dr Gray demonstrates how this latest IPCC document fails to meet even the most basic of scientific standards.  

   New Confirmation of Strong Solar Forcing of Climate by Dr Theodor Landscheidt  
(7 Nov 2000).
Recent flooding of the River Po in Italy was predicted in advance through Solar Motion Cycle analysis.

  The Cause of `Global Warming' (4 Nov 2000)  by Vincent Gray (New Zealand). Dr Gray shows how `global warming' is produced, not by warming of the climate, but by warming of the instruments that measure climate.

Halloween 13 - Global Warming Horror Movies  and  Global Warming GI-GO (25 Oct 2000)   Two Op-Ed articles by Paul K. Driessen of the `Frontiers of Freedom' to mark Halloween and the coming U.S. presidential election.

   Coping With Climate Change, Based on Historical Experience by Gary D. Sharp (Center for Climate/Ocean Resources Study PO Box 2223, Monterey, CA 93942)

    IPCC's Most Essential Model Errors (3 Jun 2000) by Peter Dietze. A new paper which focuses on IPCC's three most essential modelling and core parameter errors.

   Comments on the Second Draft of the IPCC Third Scientific Assessment Report
by Vincent Gray (8 May 00)

    Estimation of the Radiative Forcing for CO2 Doubling (16 Apr 00)  - Peter Dietze (Germany) uses HITRAN spectra and a simple atmospheric energy equilibrium model for re-radiation, replicating the new IPCC forcing. But vapour overlap curbs it to 1.9 W/m². The ground warming is by a factor 4 to 6 less than IPCC's 2.5 °C.
Plus - `Open Review' comments

   The Station Record at Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia (31 March 2000) - An investigation by Ken Parish (a Darwin resident) into why Darwin has apparently cooled since 1939

    Sun's Role in the Satellite-Balloon-Surface Issue (26 Mar 2000) - Dr Theodor Landscheidt  How the satellite and sonde data shows a more natural response to the sun than does the surface record.

    The Big Bangs ! (1 Mar 2000) - Ken Parish  (Australia) -   How nuclear weapon tests in the 1950s and 1960s may have cooled global climate. Plus - `Open Review' here

   The Surface Temperature Record (25 Jan 2000) - Dr Vincent Gray (New Zealand) -
Reveals the real reasons why the surface record fails to match the satellite temperature record.

   Third Assessment Report (TAR) - 2000 Comments and Reviews (20 Jan 2000)

   Comments on "Solar Activity: A Dominant Factor in Climate Dynamics" (by Dr Theodor Landscheidt) (20 Jan 2000) - Charles "Chick" F. Keller (USA) - Disputes findings by Dr Landscheidt on solar-climate linkages     Also, see `Open Review' of Chick Keller's paper here

   `Top Climate Events' Linked to Solar Motion Cycle (3 Jan 2000) - Dr Theodor Landscheidt (Canada) - NOAA's top climate events of the 20th Century correlate with solar motion cycle

   Review report for IPCC WG1 Third Assessment Report (TAR) (1 Dec 99) - Dr Jarl Ahlbeck (Finland) - Review of future carbon dioxide concentrations from latest IPCC emission scenarios.  

    Global Warming will Lower Sea Level Rise: But will Politicians Listen? (21 Nov 99) by Prof S. Fred Singer (U.S.A.) - How interactions between the oceans and the Antarctic ice mass reduces the rate of sea level rise, not increase it.

   The Carbon Dioxide Thermometer (2 Nov 99) by Jarl R. Ahlbeck (Finland) - Demonstrates that atmospheric CO2 can be used to track global temperature, and supports the satellite record

   IPCC Scenarios Old and New (25 Sep 99) - Dr Vincent Gray (New Zealand) - New climate scenarios in the IPCC pipeline.   (zip file 10K)

   Absorption of Carbon Dioxide from the Atmosphere (26 July 99) by Jarl Ahlbeck   (D.Sc., Chem.Eng.) (Finland)- How "consensus" carbon cycle models overpredict future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.

   Grave Discrepancies Between Theory and Experiment (13 July 99) by Jack Barrett
(Britain). The growing realisation that theories about atmospheric radiative transfer are at odds with experimental data.

  Estimation of the Solar Fraction and Svensmark Factor (30 June 99) by Peter Dietze (Germany). Warming from the sun is 4 times greater than the initial forcing.

  Global Warming: How It All Began (9 May 99) - Richard Courtney (Britain). How global warming had its origins as an act of political expediency in Britain, only to become a global scare

   Validation Of Computer-based Climate Models (2 May 99) -  Dr Vincent Gray (New Zealand) IPCC has failed to validate computer models upon which predictions of warming are based.

   Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming (8-Apr-99) - Dr Jarl Ahlbeck (Finland). CO2 levels for the pre-industrial time is mainly an effect of ocean temperature change, not a cause.

  Carbon Dioxide and Methane Revisited (8-Apr-99) - Dr Vincent Gray (New Zealand). Review of several recent papers dealing with carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere. 

   Greenhouse Warming Reduced (16 Mar 99) - Dr Vincent Gray (New Zealand). How IPCC estimates of CO2 forcing have been overblown by 15%.

   Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (28-Feb-99) - Dr Vincent Gray (New Zealand) discusses new findings that pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 has been variable during the last millenium

  Solar Activity Controls El Niño and La Niña - A new solar model to explain the timing of previous ENSO events and to predict future ones - by Dr Theodor Landscheidt
Plus, Reactions to Landscheidt's paper

  The Climate Catastrophe - A Spectroscopic Artifact? - Results of an important experiment to find out just how much - or how little - energy is absorbed by CO2 by Dr Heinz Hug (Germany) (9 Sept 98)

  Solar Activity: A Dominant Factor in Climate Dynamics - Dr Theodor Landscheidt (Canada) demonstrates that climate changes are predominantly the result of solar activity, not human activity)

 Statistical Analysis of Atmospheric Concentration of Carbon Dioxide -  (Demonstrates an upper limit to atmospheric CO2. By Jarl R. Ahlbeck D.Sc.(Chem Eng.) Research Associate, Abo Akademi University, Finland)  

  The Precautionary Principle - (A Warning About a New and Alien Political-Scientific Paradigm by Hans
Henrik Ramm (Editor-in-Chief, Norwegian Oil Review) (zip file)   

 Little Warming with New Global Carbon Cycle Model - Peter Dietze (Germany) Challenges the IPCC assumptions about CO2 lifetimes with a new carbon cycle model to show that warming will be much less than previously thought and that CO2 atmospheric lifetime is only 55 years.)

 Pre-1910 Temperatures in Australia. (Many pre-1910 temperature records in Australia indicate that the Australian climate was warmer then than it is now. Is this instrument error, or was it really warmer? Warwick S. Hughes (Australia) investigates. Includes a brief response by Dr Neville Nicholls of the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia)

 Urban Influences on South African Temperature Trends -   (South Africa climate study by Warwick Hughes (Australia) and Dr Robert Balling (USA) reveals how CRU got that region all wrong)