The Greenhouse Delusion - Chapter 2    by Dr Vincent Gray


"Climate" is usually thought of as the average weather, in terms of temperature, precipitation and wind velocity, over a period, and in a particular place. As such, it is always changing, for better or for worse.

The earth’s atmosphere began four and a half billion year’s ago, as a mixture of water vapour, hydrogen, hydrogen chloride carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and nitrogen. By interaction with surface rocks, and from living organisms it gradually reached its current composition. The most important part of this transformation was the conversion of much of the carbon dioxide into oxygen by abundant plant life, particularly during the Carboniferous period, when most of our coal and oil deposits were formed.

Besides atmospheric changes, the earth has passed through many temperature fluctuations. The cold periods in the more recent epochs have been termed ice ages

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change , in its Article 1 defines "Climate Change" as "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods" (1)

It is amazing that many Governments have endorsed this absurd and confused statement. "Climate Change’" is what is "attributed" to human activity, but "Change of Climate" can take place without humans. "Natural climate variability" is not "climate change" but, apparently, is a "change of climate". There is no mention at all of "unnatural climate variability"

The IPCC (1) appears to retreat from this definition by the statement:

"Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as the result of human activity"

"Climate change" is now identical to "change of climate", but seems to be unclear whether "change" and "variability" are the same thing.

This comprehensive definition does not seem to inhibit the IPCC from claiming that an "unprecedented" climate change must be "anthropogenic" (jargon for "the result of human activity").

The IPCC (2) confuses matters still further by defining "Climate Change" in their "Glossary of Terms" as follows:

"Climate Change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer) "

They balk at an actual definition, preferring to state what "climate change" "refers to". "Climate" is already "usually defined" as "the average weather" (2), but now we have "the mean state of the climate", in other words, an average of an average. "Climate Change" by the IPCC definition now includes not only "change of climate", but also "its variability", both natural and unnatural. "Change" is now the same as "variation" but seems to be distinguished from "variability". We are also involved in studying the "variation" of "variability".

Chapter 2 of Climate Change 01 is entitled "Observed Climate Variability and Change" as if the two are separate from one another. "Climate Variability:" is defined in the Glossary of Terms (2) as follows:

"Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes etc) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events"

So, how can you tell the difference between "climate change" and "climate variability" if the latter "refers to" "all temporal and spatial scales". Of course, you cannot. Any "climate change" can be a "variability" if you take a long enough "temporal scale". Yet the IPCC tries to make such a distinction.

There is a general implication by IPCC spokespersons and by politicians that "Climate Change" is unusual, always harmful, invariably caused by humans, and must be stopped at all costs. Yet "climate change" is inevitable, unstoppable, routine, and something to be endured, for better or for worse, like death and taxes. And, if you wait long enough, it is only a form of "climate variability".


  1. Climate Change 01 Summary for Policymakers, footnote 1 to page 2
  2. Climate Change 01 Glossary . Page 788

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