Critique of "Climate
Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
VINCENT GRAY, M.A., PH.D
75 Silverstream Road
Crofton Downs, Wellington 6004
Phone/Fax 064 4 9735939
(click on the
Summary For Policymakers
Chapter 1 - History of the Greenhouse Effect
Chapter 2 - `Climate
Change', `Change of Climate', or `Climate Variability'?
Chapter 3 - Global Warming: What Evidence?
Chapter 4 - Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols
Chapter 5 - Sea Level
- Computer Climate Models
Chapter 7 - Forecasting the Future
Chapter 8 - Extreme Events
A Note on Sources
Summary for Policymakers
Climate has always changed and nothing we can do will stop it from
There is no credible evidence that the earth is currently warming.
Satellite measurements in the lower atmosphere for the past 23 years
show no significant temperature change. The frequently quoted
combined temperature record from weather stations is biased in
favour of proximity to cities, airports. buildings, roads and
vehicles, all of which have become slightly warmer over the years
from increased energy consumption. Surface measurements from remote
areas, or from countries with many well controlled sites ( such as
the USA) show no evidence of significant warming.
Sea level measurements are even more biased than weather stations.
They are mainly near Northern Hemisphere ports, and are subject to
local and short and long-term geological changes which are difficult
to allow for. Sites in remote, low population places, such as the
smaller Pacific islands show no evidence of recent sea level change.
The earth’s temperature is warmer because of its atmosphere, and
by the influence of greenhouse gases which partly prevent heat loss.
The changes over the years in the properties of the most important
of these gases, water vapour, and the clouds that form from it, are
The minor greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide is increasing in
concentration linearly at the rate of 0.4% a year, and as a result,
agricultural and forestry yields are increasing. There are no
established harmful effects of this increase.
The rate of increase of the only other important greenhouse gas,
methane, has fallen steadily for the past 17 years. The
concentration is currently falling.
Computer climate models are based on the incorrect belief that
changes in the greenhouse effect are the only influences on the
There are huge uncertainties in the model outputs which are
unrecognised and unmeasured. They are so large that adjustment of
model parameters can give model results which fit any climate,
including one with no warming, and one that cools.
No model has ever successfully predicted any future climate
sequence. Despite this, future "projections" for as far
ahead as several hundred years have been presented by the IPCC as
plausible future trends, based on largely distorted
"storylines", combined with untested models.
The IPCC have provided a wealth of scientific information on the
climate, but they have not established a case that increases in
carbon dioxide are causing any harmful effects.
Attempts to suggest a relationship with "unusual"
weather events and changes in greenhouse gases have been